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WHAT HAPPENS TO THE NUCLEAR TALKS?

The sputtering six-party talks are likely headed for more delay. The missile launch changed the dynamics by increasing the North’s leverage in the discussions, experts said, which could lead Pyongyang to try to water down some existing obligations and resist calls from the five dialogue partners to agree to a nuclear inspection system, if it shows up at all.

North Korea may also try to set up separate, bilateral missile talks with the United States, as it did after sending a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan in 1998, in an attempt to win concessions from new U.S. President Barack Obama and isolate Washington from allies South Korea and Japan.

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WHAT ABOUT UNILATERAL MEASURES?

Japan is looking to extend and perhaps broaden its existing sanctions but that will not cause much pain for Pyongyang because the economic influence is so small.

South Korea’s conservative government halted unconditional aid last year when it took office. This aid had a value equal to about 5 percent of the North’s annual economy. The South could shut a joint factory park located just north of their heavily armed border that supplies Pyongyang’s leaders with cash, but Seoul so far has rejected that idea.

The United States may consider placing North Korea back on its terrorism blacklist. This could hurt its international trade and limit its ability to tap into global finance.

WILL NORTH KOREA TEST MORE MISSILES?

Impoverished North Korea is unlikely to fire another Taepodong-2 long-range missile soon due to the high cost.

Pyongyang will likely refrain from testing its mid-range ballistic missiles because that would undermine its argument that Sunday’s launch was for the peaceful purpose of putting a satellite into orbit.

It may, however, test-fire short-range missiles to raise tension with South Korea. The North has said it would see Seoul’s plan to join a U.S. initiative to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as an act of war and may feel it needs to raise tension with its rich neighbor in response.

(Editing by Dean Yates)

reuters.com