Q+A: Could Israel strike Iran over nuclear concerns?

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(Reuters) – Israel has not given up the option of a military response to Tehran’s nuclear programme, Israel’s deputy foreign minister said on Monday, after Russia had said Israel’s president gave an assurance Israel would not attack.

Many analysts believe the risks of a strike by Israel, even one not endorsed by its ally the United States, are significant.

Here’s where matters stand:

COULD ISRAEL LAUNCH A STRIKE AGAINST IRAN?

It’s a poker game with high stakes and a degree of bluff. Israeli leaders refuse to rule out any option [ID:nLD462373]. They do not believe Iran’s assurances it wants only nuclear energy. Noting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s repeated assertions that Israel has no future, Israel has said an Iranian bomb would be a threat to its very existence that it simply would not tolerate.

Last year, however, it emerged officials were making plans for how Israel might live with a nuclear Iran in a state of mutual deterrence. And a June poll showed Israelis would not expect a nuclear Iran to attack. Last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said even a nuclear Iran could not destroy Israel, stating: “Israel can lay waste to Iran.”

Since becoming prime minister in March, Benjamin Netanyahu has, aides say, made ending threats from Iran a defining element of what he sees as his personal role in Jewish history. A 1981 Israeli air strike that destroyed Iraq’s only nuclear reactor, as well as a strike in Syria in 2007 that is cloaked in mystery, set precedents. Despite a policy of silence, few doubt Israel has nuclear weapons and missiles that can hit Iran.

WHAT MIGHT HOLD ISRAEL BACK?

It is not clear how Israel would define achieving its goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But a pledge from Iran to forswear such arms, backed by some form of supervision and intelligence data, might be a minimum. Much will depend on Iran’s actions and on U.S. President Barack Obama and others, who are pressing Iran through sanctions and diplomacy.

While many analysts doubt Iran’s denials of military intent, some say Iran may be content with showing it has the potential to go nuclear quickly, without actually arming itself. Israel, however, might not accept that level of potential threat.

In the meantime, were Israel to consider a unilateral strike on it Iran it would have to weigh several major risks:

– of retaliation, not just from Iran but its allied guerrilla groups, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas

– of economic and diplomatic backlash from U.S. and allies

– of a failed attack still triggering the above reactions

WHAT ARE THE KEY ELEMENTS IN TIMETABLE?

First, Iran’s technology: Israel’s national security adviser said in July it had passed a “red line” in terms of being able to make its own nuclear explosive but could not make significant amounts nor yet put viable nuclear warheads on its missiles.  Continued…

reuters.com